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High-resolution climate projections for the Canary Islands. Seasonality and extreme events (PLEASE)

In recent decades, a growing need has emerged for detailed, high-resolution, regional information on the future of the climate, with sufficient quality to detect potential impacts on various sectors, such as natural ecosystems, health, energy and water resources, tourism, and others. Access to this information is a crucial starting point for defining effective and efficient adaptation/mitigation measures, based on different climate projection scenarios throughout the 21st century. Within this general framework, outlined in both national and European strategies (National Strategy for Science, Technology and Innovation, Horizon 2020, etc.), the overall objective of this project is to generate high-resolution climate information for the Canary Islands that will be useful for determining the impacts of climate change throughout the 21st century. Given the characteristics of the sensitive natural ecosystems and the complex orography of Macaronesia in general, and the Canary Islands in particular, the use of high-resolution techniques is necessary to obtain climate projections useful for defining strategic policies for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The project is being carried out by a team with extensive experience in atmospheric/climate modeling in island environments (Earth and Atmosphere Observation Group, GOTA) and is supported by a large computing infrastructure, namely the TEIDE-HPC supercomputer belonging to the Institute of Technology and Renewable Energies (ITER). The specific objectives are: 1. Study and development of the necessary software tools for the correct execution of the required software on TEIDE-HPC. 2. Selection of the CMIP5 coupled general circulation models that will serve as initial values and boundary conditions for the development of the climate projections. 3. Development of climate projections throughout the 21st century for different concentration scenarios (RCPs) and general circulation models included in CMIP5. Using dynamic downscaling techniques and projections from the coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation (AOGCM) models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP 5), climate projections for the Canary Islands archipelago will be obtained at a spatial resolution of at least 5 km for the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways, RCPs). One of the main advantages of obtaining climate projections by forcing the WRF with CMIP5 data is the availability of a set of outputs—as many as there are CMIP5 models used—and therefore the ability to apply statistical techniques that allow for a better determination of potential changes, both in average values and extreme events, which are essential for assessing the associated natural hazards.

Researcher at the University of La Laguna

  • Information
  • Category: Other entities
  • Program: CajaCanarias Foundation 2015
  • Start date: 03/01/2016
  • End date: pending definition